Tag: market

Can We Use Mixture Models to Predict Market Bottoms?

Post Outline * Recap * Hypothesis * Strategy * Conclusion * Caveats and Areas of Exploration * References Recap In Part 1 we learned about Hidden Markov Models and their application using a toy example involving a lazy pet dog. In Part 2 we learned about the expectation-maximization algorithm, K-Means, and how Mixture Models improve on K-Means weaknesses. If you still have some questions or fuzzy understanding about these topics, I would recommend reviewing the prior posts. In those po

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Is Trading the FED's POMO Schedule Profitable?

I often consider the market's distortions that are or can be created by its participants. Arguably, the most important market player is the Federal Reserve. For years the FED as been injecting liquidity into the financial system through its Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO). I'm not going to delve into the purpose of these multibillion dollar transactions as others have covered this extensively. Instead I ask a simple question. The FED makes their tentative POMO schedule public beforehand.

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