USING IMPLIED VOLATILITY TO PREDICT ETF RETURNS (2/20/16)

FOR A DEEPER DIVE INTO ETF PERFORMANCE AND RELATIVE VALUE SUBSCRIBE TO THE ETF INTERNAL ANALYTICS PACKAGE HERE

To see the origin of this series click here

In the paper that inspired this series ("What Does Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?") the authors' research shows that their calculation of the Option Volatility Smirk is predictive of equity returns up to 4 weeks. Therefore, each week, I will calculate the Long/Short legs of a portfolio constructed by following their criteria as closely as possible. However this study will focus on ETF's as opposed to single name equities. I will then track the results of the Long/Short portfolio, in equity returns, cumulatively for 4 weeks before rotating out of that portfolio. The ETF's are selected from the following groups:

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PORTFOLIO FOUR

Longs: XRT,  XLY,  XLP,  XHB,  GDXJ,  IYT,  XME,  MDY

Shorts: EPI, XLU, HEDJ, JNK, EWQ, VEU, XLI

PORTFOLIO FIVE

Longs: VO, GDX, XHB, XLB, HACK, XLY, XLP, XLU

Shorts: ACWI, VWO, IYJ, VB, VPU, ECH, VGK, IWB

PORTFOLIO SIX:

LONGS: IJR, ACWI, IJH, KBE, VWO, XLY, XLU, IYG

SHORTS: EWU, XHB, VXUS, VPU, IXC, EWW, VGK, EPI

PORTFOLIO SEVEN:

LONGS: RTH, FDN, IDU, EPI, HACK, XLU, IYG, HEDJ

SHORTS: EWA, MOO, VOX, VGK, EWH, EWW, IAU, IJR

CUMULATIVE GROSS PRICE RETURN (ALL PORTFOLIOS)

PORTFOLIO EIGHT:

LONGS:  IYG, XLP, EWW, EPI, MDY, XLU, IYR, IAU

SHORTS: HEDJ, INDA, IWB, VXUS, EWS, EZU, EWU, LQD

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