USING IMPLIED VOLATILITY TO PREDICT EQUITY/ETF RETURNS (1/11/16)
/To see the origin of this series click here
In the paper that inspired this series ("What Does Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?") the authors research shows that Option Volatility Smirk they calculate is predictive up to 4 weeks. Therefore, each week, I will calculate the Long/Short legs of a portfolio constructed by following their criteria as closely as possible. I will then track the results of the Long/Short portfolio, in equity returns, cumulatively for 4 weeks before rotating out of that portfolio. The ETF's are selected from the following groups:
With that said, it is now time to update Portfolio One's, one week results.
PORTFOLIO ONE
Longs: XLF, EPI, VOX, XLI, XLP, XLV, HEDJ, IYT
Shorts: EZU, XLB, GDXJ, XRT, XHB, VGK, KRE, EWT
One Week Results:
PORTFOLIO TWO
Longs: FEZ, VPU, INDA, IWB, HEDJ, IJR, IYT
Shorts: EEM, VDE, IAU, EWH, LQD, EWW, EWT
ETF SKEW LONGS
FEZ
VPU
INDA
IWB
HEDJ
IJR
IYT
ETF SKEW SHORTS
EEM
VDE
IAU
EWH
LQD
EWW
EWT