USING IMPLIED VOLATILITY TO PREDICT EQUITY/ETF RETURNS (1/11/16)

To see the origin of this series click here

In the paper that inspired this series ("What Does Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?") the authors research shows that Option Volatility Smirk they calculate is predictive up to 4 weeks. Therefore, each week, I will calculate the Long/Short legs of a portfolio constructed by following their criteria as closely as possible. I will then track the results of the Long/Short portfolio, in equity returns, cumulatively for 4 weeks before rotating out of that portfolio. The ETF's are selected from the following groups:

 

With that said, it is now time to update Portfolio One's, one week results. 

PORTFOLIO ONE

Longs: XLF, EPI, VOX, XLI, XLP, XLV, HEDJ, IYT

Shorts: EZU, XLB, GDXJ, XRT, XHB, VGK, KRE, EWT

One Week Results: 

PORTFOLIO TWO

Longs: FEZ, VPU, INDA, IWB, HEDJ, IJR, IYT

Shorts: EEM, VDE, IAU, EWH, LQD, EWW, EWT

ETF SKEW LONGS

FEZ

VPU

INDA

IWB

HEDJ

IJR

IYT

ETF SKEW SHORTS

EEM

VDE

IAU

EWH

LQD

EWW

EWT