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Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble

We had a perfect recipe for the “abrupt” correction that global asset markets have experienced. A quick look at the factors shows observant investors that caution was necessary leading up to the most recent FED meeting. 1) Leverage as measured by NYSE margin debt released in May showed levels greater than that of 2007 and close to all time highs. This excessive risk appetite can be attributed to an extremely low interest rate environment and low volatility in the broader market. Said simply – le

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Who Runs the Market? The High Stakes Players

Approximately $7.5 trillion in assets are controlled by 24 private financial entities. This list does not include central banks and governments. These numbers are subject to differences in estimations and definitions of AUM but it provides a nice ball park figure to let you know the influence these players have on the market. Two Lists: Primary Dealers AUM in Billions Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. Not disclosed Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated $1,800.0 Deutsche Bank Secur

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WHO RUNS THE MARKET?

A simple question, often overlooked to the investors' detriment.... In my ongoing pursuit to gain an edge in the market I’ve often thought it critical to analyze who the key players are. But even more broadly and perhaps of greater importance, I’ve often considered who or what forces have the power to “move the markets”. As a casual observer, or "unsophisticated" investor the most common market news you may encounter is pundits discussing stocks and the stock market, earnings reports, the FED an

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)_Part 2

Early January 2013, I did a write-up of Chipotle Mexican Grill and my thoughts on its value and whether I would buy it at that level for a long term investment. Based on my initial analysis I concluded that CMG was expensive as a growth company due to several factors. Data trends indicated that operating margins and revenue growth (while still growing) were beginning to level off. Additionally, earnings surprise momentum showed a negative trend indicating positive earnings surprises were less fr

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)_Part 1

Here is a presentation I produced in early January, where I evaluated the value of buying Chipotle (CMG) stock as a long term investment. It is here for reference for my follow up post in which I update my thesis. Check it out. As always feedback is welcomed. Chipotle Equity Analysis_An Expensive Burrito? from Brian Christopher

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My First Stock Call Part II

Atwood Oceanics stood out. Its market cap hovered around 2 billion with a P/E of 10. It was a smaller player in an industry of Oil drilling behemoths- RIG, DO and et al. The industry average Price to Earnings ratio at the time was almost 26x. I wondered; relative to industry P/E why was this firm so "cheap"? I began delving into the firm’s financial statements. I was looking for answers to key questions. What is ATW’s true business? How stable are the revenue streams and margins? What is ATW

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My First Stock Call

2010 - A year or so after my first "professional" foray into finance failed I had been upset, disillusioned and burned out. At the time I questioned my whole interest in capital markets. Was my B.S. in Economics (no pun intended) worth it? Why did I bother with such a specialized degree? I had grown up with a passionate interest in what I commonly refer to as the ‘greatest game on earth’. As a developing youth I had innumerable questions about the ‘game’-- how it was played, who were the player

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