Blog

Walking the Path takes time...

Readers, I have been away somewhat after my declaration of providing more useful and interesting content. Why is that? Am I being hypocritical or something worse? The answer is neither. The essence of the Blackarbs mission is to continuously find ways to add value to investors anywhere and everywhere they may be. Born out of that mission is the iVC report which has helped a few portfolio managers, and private investors (including myself) make prudent well timed investments in value creating st

READ MORE →

Stocks - Post Earnings UPDATE (week of July 21, 2014)

Let's take a look at how the previously graded stocks have performed over the last ~10 days. Please note this is a raw analysis in that these stocks reported at different times last week, so cumulative performance may be affected by the date they reported in addition to other factors. returns comparisons The key take away for me regarding this chart is that most of the returns on this extremely short time scale cluster between +/- 5%. There are a couple relatively 'extreme' movements by this

READ MORE →

Stocks - Pre Earnings Equity Grade (week of 07.21.14)

With the iVC reports showing some preliminary promise, I thought it would be worthwhile to begin tracking any potential predictive ability of the grading system. It's late so it's likely I'll have to update this post with better prose after I get some sleep. See this week's pre-earnings grades below. The reports are available for sale through the shop.

READ MORE →

Why I'm Bullish on Facebook (FB) Long Term

I am bullish on FB because I believe the firm's strategic vision is sound and recent moves have put FB in a position to build on and maintain a competitive advantage well into the future. There are 4 keys to my thesis: 1. FB is the current market leader in the social networking space 2. FB has just begun to monetize its user base and ad platform 3. Whatsapp's potential value is much greater than 19 billion paid 4. Mobile technology industry will continue to grow globally Facebook is the un

READ MORE →

The Return

It's been a while since I've updated the blog and with good reason. Like any worthwhile business the foundation on which it's built must be thoroughly researched, well planned, and ruthlessly executed. With that in mind, I've been away building other pieces of the foundation which I will be unveiling over the next week or so. Be on the lookout for the upcoming BlackArbs flagship product titled the "iVC Report" (Identify Value Creators). This report is designed to assist retail and professional i

READ MORE →

3d Systems_Follow the Leader

I'll keep this short and sweet. 3d systems is still the undisputed king of the mountain in the 3d printing industry. They generate more revenue, more gross profit, more operating profit and more net income than all their competitors. See my updated report which includes their most recent 3rd quarter results and additional analysis. 3d Systems (DDD)_updated for Q32013 from Brian Christopher

READ MORE →

Stay Long Stocks Until...

...the Fed stops buying Bonds. It's as simple as that. The Fed has committed to purchasing $45 billion in treasuries and $40 billion in MBS per month for the foreseeable future. That's a run rate of ~1 trillion a year! The "Fed put" is real and I can prove it. Look at the following chart. US Federal Reserve Total Assets data by YCharts The plot starts on 11/25/2008 or the beginning of the first Quantitative Easing program (QE1). We can see there is a clear relationship between the Federal Rese

READ MORE →

Bernanke's Bluff, Congress Gridlock, What Happens Next?

Did you fall for it? Market pundits and the general investment community gave the impression that Bernanke would announce the taper plan during September's FOMC meeting. While not an impossible event, the political and economic situation made it a low probability event. Here are my thoughts on why: 1. Bernanke's term ends January 31, 2014. A replacement has not been named and at the time one of the key front runners, Larry Summers, withdrew from the race. A policy change to the QE program whic

READ MORE →

3d Printer Wars - An Industry Primer

Here is a presentation I created focusing on the Additive Manufacturing Industry aka the 3d Printing Industry. I will examine individual firms within the 3d printing industry in an ongoing effort to look for potential profit opportunities in this revolutionary space. 3d Printer Wars - An Industry Primer from Brian Christopher

READ MORE →

Is Trading the FED's POMO Schedule Profitable?

I often consider the market's distortions that are or can be created by its participants. Arguably, the most important market player is the Federal Reserve. For years the FED as been injecting liquidity into the financial system through its Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO). I'm not going to delve into the purpose of these multibillion dollar transactions as others have covered this extensively. Instead I ask a simple question. The FED makes their tentative POMO schedule public beforehand.

READ MORE →

Using R to Chart Shadow Banking Components

Previously I wrote a primer on the shadow banking markets. In this post I follow up by attempting to chart and analyze the components. Surprisingly (or not) it proved more difficult than I anticipated to construct the components charts. First finding good data series that could serve as a proxy was time consuming. Additionally some of the data series that helped in deconstructing the market in the past were discontinued. I also had to merge data from several sources. Keep in mind this is definit

READ MORE →

Shadow Banking _ A primer

How large is this shadow banking market?? Estimates vary due to the inherent difficulty of quantifying ‘shadow’ assets. The most recent figures cited by the Federal Reserve and computed by the financial stability board has pegged the global shadow market at approximately $65 trillion USD; having peaked in 2007 at 128% of aggregate GDP* now settling in at approximately 111%. Of the $65 trillion shadow market, the U.S. accounts for an estimated 35% or ~$23 trillion followed by the euro area at $

READ MORE →