December 13, 2015

2015)

December 13, 2015/ Brian Christopher

LAYOUT (Organized by Time Period):

Composite ETF Cumulative Returns Momentum Bar plot
Composite ETF Cumulative Returns Line plot
Composite ETF Risk-Adjusted Returns Scatter plot (Std vs Mean)
Composite ETF Risk-Adjusted Return Correlations Heatmap (Clusterplot)
Composite ETF Cumulative Return Tables
Notable Trends and Observations

COMPOSITE ETF COMPONENTS:

YEAR-TO-DATE LAST 247 TRADING DAYS

Click here for help understanding this Chart

LAST 126 TRADING DAYS

LAST 63 TRADING DAYS

LAST 21 TRADING DAYS

LAST 10 TRADING DAYS

Cumulative Return Tables:

Notable Observations and Trends:

Energy has been a bottom 3 performer in 4 out of 5 time frames.
Oil and Gas has been a bottom 3 performer in all 5 time frames.
Real Estate, and Bonds are the only two composites to be among the top 3 performers in 3 different time frames.
Technology and Consumer Staples are the only composites to be among top 3 performers in 2 different time frames.
Precious Metals Miners are the only composite to appear among the worst 3 performers (YTD, L/ 126 days) and best 3 performers (L/ 10 days). Is this a sign of a trend change or simply catastrophe insurance given the recent sell-off in the market?
Utilities have had positive risk-adjusted returns in 3 different time frames (Last 126, 63, 21 days).
Only Precious Metals Miners have had positive risk adjusted returns over the last 10 trading days.

December 06, 2015

COMPOSITE MACRO ETF WEEKLY IMPLIED COST-OF-CAPITAL ESTIMATES VS. CUMULATIVE RETURNS (12/06/15)

December 06, 2015/ Brian Christopher

WHAT IS THE "IMPLIED COST OF CAPITAL (ICC)" MODEL?

“In accounting and finance the implied cost of equity capital (ICC)—defined as the internal rate of return that equates the current stock price to discounted expected future dividends—is an increasingly popular class of proxies for the expected rate of equity returns. ”

— CHARLES C. Y. WANG; an assistant professor of business administration in the Accounting and Management Unit at Harvard Business School

The basic concept of the ICC model is that it is a forward looking estimate of the implied earnings growth rate of stock given the current stock price. It is calculated using a combination of equity book value and earnings forecasts.

To see a more involved explanation of the previous model I used see here.

In the past I used a Multi-Stage Residual Income Model. However, this time around I've decided to use a simpler Single-Stage Residual Income Model for these estimates. I chose this because I believe the additional complexity is not warranted given my purpose which I will elaborate on further.

The Single-Stage Residual Income Model as defined by the CFA Institute is the following:

'V' is the stock price at time 0, 'B' is the book value of equity at time 0, 'ROE' is return on equity, 'g' is an assumed long term growth rate and 'r' is the cost of equity/capital. The ICC model essentially solves for 'r' given the other inputs.

WHY USE THE IMPLIED COST OF CAPITAL MODEL?

There is ongoing debate regarding the ICC model's application and accuracy as a proxy for expected returns as quoted by Charles C. Y. Wang. As an investor/trader I'm less interested in the academic debate and more intrigued by the intuition behind the model and its practical application as a relative value tool.

I use the ICC model as a relative value measure to identify analyst/institutional expectations and sentiment between different market sectors at a point in time.

For this purpose I believe it provides great insight.

COMPOSITE ETF COMPONENTS FOR ICC ESTIMATES

Z-SCORE ICC ESTIMATES AND CUMULATIVE RETURNS COMPARISON CHART

The below plot gives visual representation of the ICC estimates. I z-scored both year-to-date cumulative returns and the ICC estimates so we can view them on the same scale. Examining this chart allows investors to quickly determine which market sectors are outperforming (underperforming) their respective Implied Cost of Capital Estimates.

The extreme cases show where there are disconnects between the analyst community's forward earnings expectations and actual market performance. The plot is sorted left to right by ascending ICC estimates.